Every number, graded in public.
Every projection is logged before tip and settled against the box score. Each market's grade below is computed from the ledger, not written by hand.
3,496 numbers logged over 16 nights · 3,442 settled (724 void: did not play) · updated Nov 5, 2026
By market
What a grade takes
- Baseline
- Each player's own average over his last ten games played, taken when our number was logged.
- Proven
- At least 30 settled nights and 3000 graded player-games, and our average miss is smaller than the baseline's with a 95% interval (over nights) that stays below zero.
- Void
- A player who did not play is void, never zero. Only players who played are graded.
A player who plays well under his projected minutes is flagged and stays on the record. A detector marks likely injury exits, but it was confirmed on 79% of the exits checked last season, under the 90% bar for dropping rows, so flagged rows stay: dropping misses on a guess would flatter the record. The props page shows the books' lines beside our numbers, but no profit, return or hit rate is shown anywhere on this site, and nothing here is graded against a line: that needs its own rule for the record first.
Night by night
Lower is better. Each night's dots are the average miss on the player-games graded that night; the line between them is how far apart we were. A night with few games moves a lot.
By role
On players projected for 28+ minutes, our minutes have run +1.3 min high on average.
| Group | Player-games | MIN miss | MIN lean | PTS miss | PTS lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By projected minutes | |||||
| 28+ projected minutes | 939 | 4.37 / 4.70 | +1.3 min | 5.66 / 5.76 | +0.2 pts |
| 20 to 28 projected minutes | 646 | 5.00 / 5.81 | +0.9 min | 4.59 / 5.03 | +0.9 pts |
| 12 to 20 projected minutes | 687 | 5.68 / 6.72 | +0.9 min | 4.02 / 4.41 | +0.7 pts |
| Under 12 projected minutes | 392 | 5.55 / 6.77 | +0.2 min | 2.90 / 3.79 | +0.4 pts |
| By injury status when logged | |||||
| Not listed | 2,630 | 5.02 / 5.78 | +0.9 min | 4.57 / 4.95 | +0.5 pts |
| Probable | 11 | 5.62 / 7.24 | +2.3 min | 3.90 / 3.50 | +1.8 pts |
| Questionable | 23 | 5.98 / 6.60 | +3.3 min | 4.88 / 5.52 | +2.2 pts |
By night
| Night | Graded | MIN miss | PTS miss | REB miss | AST miss | 3PM miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 314 | 4.83 / 5.40 | 4.29 / 4.59 | 1.95 / 2.01 | 1.26 / 1.35 | 0.85 / 0.86 |
| 2026-11-02 | 332 | 4.55 / 5.69 | 4.32 / 4.82 | 1.64 / 1.83 | 1.29 / 1.34 | 0.91 / 0.90 |
| 2026-11-01 | 89 | 4.36 / 4.96 | 4.71 / 4.32 | 1.96 / 1.99 | 1.23 / 1.37 | 1.08 / 1.02 |
| 2026-10-31 | 161 | 5.55 / 6.36 | 5.02 / 5.44 | 1.69 / 1.90 | 1.34 / 1.28 | 1.00 / 0.99 |
| 2026-10-30 | 230 | 4.60 / 5.30 | 4.61 / 4.73 | 1.74 / 1.81 | 1.32 / 1.28 | 0.89 / 0.92 |
| 2026-10-29 | 66 | 4.74 / 5.80 | 5.11 / 5.59 | 1.90 / 1.97 | 1.68 / 1.62 | 0.98 / 1.06 |
| 2026-10-28 | 256 | 4.70 / 5.53 | 4.36 / 4.81 | 1.94 / 1.97 | 1.33 / 1.39 | 0.88 / 0.93 |
| 2026-10-27 | 93 | 5.33 / 6.35 | 4.79 / 4.79 | 1.70 / 1.76 | 1.26 / 1.33 | 1.02 / 0.99 |
| 2026-10-26 | 210 | 5.36 / 6.33 | 3.93 / 4.64 | 2.01 / 2.27 | 1.20 / 1.33 | 0.82 / 0.87 |
| 2026-10-25 | 155 | 4.82 / 5.94 | 4.57 / 4.92 | 2.02 / 2.11 | 1.34 / 1.51 | 0.94 / 0.93 |
| 2026-10-24 | 170 | 5.69 / 5.87 | 4.86 / 5.16 | 1.93 / 1.91 | 1.36 / 1.42 | 0.97 / 1.00 |
| 2026-10-23 | 275 | 5.70 / 6.43 | 4.67 / 5.19 | 1.91 / 2.07 | 1.25 / 1.39 | 0.78 / 0.84 |
| 2026-10-22 | 45 | 4.07 / 4.34 | 4.67 / 4.63 | 2.07 / 2.05 | 1.61 / 1.72 | 0.74 / 0.74 |
| 2026-10-21 | 254 | 5.73 / 6.52 | 5.02 / 5.61 | 1.81 / 1.90 | 1.47 / 1.54 | 0.88 / 0.93 |
| 2026-10-20 | 68 | 3.96 / 3.44 | 4.94 / 5.13 | 1.86 / 1.76 | 1.37 / 1.37 | 1.00 / 1.00 |